Can You Retire On A Million Dollars? – Andrei Jikh

by YouTube Team

A million dollars isn’t what it used to be. Can you retire on one million dollars today?

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Did you know the word millionaire was first coined just 14 years before the United States even became an independent country? It was the year 1762 when we called the rich, “millionaires”. But can you retire on a Million Dollars?, that’s a question that’s I think on everyone’s mind at some point in life and it’s important to understand in the context of investing and passive income.

If we assume an average income here in the United States of $50,000 a year, working for 40 years starting at the age of 22, and retiring at age 62, the average person will then go on to make around $2,000,000 in his or her lifetime. Obviously we don’t get to keep that whole 2 million, after taxes, we’d keep around $1,691,800 which assumes a best case scenario of no states income taxes if you live in states like Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, New Hampshire, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, or Wyoming.

If we then take the average savings rate in the United States, which is an embarrassingly low 7.6%, in 40 years, most people will end up saving around $128,576.80 of that 2 million, which seems really low (because it is)

Despite what mainstream media tells us, retiring on a million dollars is very possible, and you can live comfortably without ever running out of money for all eternity and it’s not some magic trick, it’s pure simple math.

First, it is true that one million dollars does not have the same purchasing power as it did in 1980. To be able to afford the same amount of stuff with one million dollars today as you did in 1980, you’d need around 3.3 million dollars. So it’s true, as time goes on, inflation makes our money less and less valuable.

For every dollar in your bank account, it’s worth around 2 pennies less every single year because we’re printing money. With what’s going on today with the economy and because we’ve had to print so much more, inflation can reach as high as 5% or 5 pennies for every dollar that you’d be losing every year. So that’s definitely an issue but not as much as you may think.

In fact, not only can you retire on a million dollars in your 60s, but theoretically, you can retire on a million dollars at any age, and never run out of money.

It was a research paper published from Trinity University by three professors. What the trinity study measured, was the success rates of investment portfolios that had different withdrawal rates in retirement for different time periods throughout history between the years 1926 to 1995, which was later expanded to 2009.

This time period spanned the 2 world wars, the Great Depression of the 1929, high inflation period of 1970s, and the booming 1980s. So this simulation covered a lot of ground. They ran this simulation with 5 different portfolio diversities, 100% stocks, which is what I have with Robinhood, 75% stocks 25% bonds, 50% stocks 50% bonds, 25% stocks 75% bonds, and 100% bonds. They also researched the lengths for 15 years, 20 years, 25 years, and 30 year rolling periods.

The Trinity Study found that 4% was the magic number. If you retired in your 60s and you withdrew 4%, out of all the simulations that they ran, there was a 100% success rate that your money would outlast you in retirement. So in the case of our hypothetical example of one million dollars, 4% of a million would be exactly $40,000 per year. If you withdraw $40,000 per year, starting at retirement age, there’s a 100% chance your money will outlast you in all the economic simulations.

But there’s a catch, If you increase the amount of years you want to be retiree, then your chances of success will decrease. If you want to be retired for 50 years and withdraw 4% per year, the chance of success drops down to 90%.

To compensate for that, a safer rate is using a 3.5%, doing this, increases the odds back to 98% success rate (assuming a 100% stock portfolio). In fact, if you withdraw 3.5%, your “terminal amount” (the amount you’re left with after retirement), would multiply 6 times. That’s because compound interest grows your money faster than you can spend it.

*Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

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42 comments

Andrei Jikh July 3, 2020 - 10:15 pm

FIRST!

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Dean Humphreys August 3, 2020 - 9:33 pm

i can retire on 650k. Ive actually done the calculations. maybe less. depends were I live when I retire. i for sure need to get out of California its to expensive here.

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Donavin Jason August 6, 2020 - 3:13 am

I would start extinguishing some bills first. Replacing power with solar; water with a well or tank. Purchase a home upfront to end rent or mortgage payments along with a electric vehicle. Take the rest of the million and invest it into some form of monthly passive income. I’d still work but at this point I’d replace my bills with continue investments that would soon allow me to retire on the passive income.

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Arie Fraiser August 11, 2020 - 11:54 am

What absolutely frustrates me when I hear financial advisors say well the trinity study doesn't apply today because you get a much lower rate of rwturn on bonds today then when the study was done and blah blah blah is this……..The study was done looking at the market over a 70+ year period of time. During that period of time rates on different investments had wild swings. Yet the stats from the study still held up. So why are these financial gurus acting like bond yields were static during the entire study? We have low yields now….we may have higher in 10 years. Who knows? And thats the point of the study. No one in 1920 knew the depression would come a decade later. No one from the 1950s and 60s knew the econimic and geopolitical issues of the 1970s would have such negative impact on the economy. And not too many people during the dot com boom 90s knew the market would return essentially nothing from 2000 – 2009 due to 2 huge crisis. Yet the 4% rule has held up throughout all that.

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Arie Fraiser August 11, 2020 - 12:15 pm

One more thing. $1 million dollars in 1980 was what was required to live an upper class even rich retirement. If the equivalent of $1 million from 1980 is $3.3 million today then that tells me the people quoting that number as the new retirement number are not talking to most middleclass households. Don't pay attention to those articles. They're just trying to get clicks. Most people will be comfortable between social security and even $500,000 saved.

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Yaacov August 12, 2020 - 12:38 am

How is 35k a year liveavle?

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Yaacov August 12, 2020 - 12:39 am

Na, dont think we can count on SS

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Yaacov August 12, 2020 - 12:39 am

Geographical arbitrage…

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Yaacov August 12, 2020 - 12:40 am

Stay out of debt, live frugally and save, invest

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Yaacov August 12, 2020 - 12:41 am

I like 3% better…
Maybe save 2M and withdraw 3% a year for expenses

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obbldude TV August 16, 2020 - 1:56 am

Hello Gypsy give me your tears

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Rahul Shah August 16, 2020 - 9:48 pm

Nailed it. Be happy with enough. Being flashy is fun, but not long term. My goal is 60k per year…1.5m.

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Anthony Smith August 23, 2020 - 9:07 pm

Love the video but I have a question. In this video you say to withdrawal a percentage from stocks but wouldn't that also lower the amount of dividend money you get each month? How do you know which stocks to sell or am I missing something lol. Loving the content man, you earned yourself a new sub 😀

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Tiffany Thomas, Your Wealth Mentor August 25, 2020 - 8:31 pm

Another great video, thanks Andrei! 🙂

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Beamlak Yenealem August 26, 2020 - 3:44 pm

I wouldn't retire with even $10,000,000

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JD l August 31, 2020 - 5:29 am

Thanks Andrei, I just submitted my resignation letter to my boss

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Dee Jay September 2, 2020 - 11:10 am

I think you can retire on a Million USD in 2020, assuming you avoid life-style inflation. But for people in their 30s today, a Million dollars probably won't cut it in 2050.

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Kaezox September 2, 2020 - 9:30 pm

Hi there. I reached a million at 26. Now 28 im at 2.1mil. I plan to never work a day in my life again and its been working fine for the past 2 years. This is all invested and slowly increases with time. I live within my means and live an average middle class lifestyle.

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Eric Weis September 8, 2020 - 11:12 pm

Lol great video. Cheers

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sbkpilot11 November 23, 2020 - 3:01 pm

one point to note – the Trinity study inflation adjusts using the CPI. However if you don't own your Real estate and are a renter you may be in trouble as Rents are increasing at 6-7% in many areas or triple the rate of the CPI and housing is the biggest component of your budget.

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dreadful November 25, 2020 - 4:50 am

My plan is to still work 3 days a week and withdraw no more then 2.5% – 3%

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Ian Cohen December 31, 2020 - 12:12 am

Very likable guy with some excellent information. He keeps it entertaining and relevant. Thanks Andrei.

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Eusebius Bob January 3, 2021 - 5:12 pm

Start by leave America for a cheaper contry

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Charmbracelet era 2003 January 6, 2021 - 7:58 pm

If I had a million dollars I would travel the world

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marcus pete January 6, 2021 - 10:39 pm

No this is my bar tab per year

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Kids Study Now January 22, 2021 - 9:58 pm

I have over 1million ….but I cant find any high interest accounts…..I just want a fixed account earning at least 5% a year…….where can I find an account like that.

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rowddyone February 7, 2021 - 12:53 am

1M is plenty, it's 3M if people keep buying shit that they dont need

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SJ Taveras March 24, 2021 - 2:57 am

Amazing video, i have a question does this study account's for taxes? And the 1 million do you put it in a self directed account or a tax advantage account. Thank you

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Zen Studios LA April 27, 2021 - 2:16 pm

Great video. Thanks!

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J C April 28, 2021 - 4:53 am

Hi Andrei. Regarding this topic of retirement, there is another option mentioned by Michael Sailor and other people in Crypto. It is about not selling your crypto, but to borrow money using it as a collateral, since the return in % for crypto (specially btc) could be much higher that the interest rate of the loan. I would love to hear your thoughts about this strategy. Thanks again

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Christopher McCord May 18, 2021 - 5:04 am

Man this video is completely awesome…..bravo!

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Millie Mouse May 19, 2021 - 6:38 pm

I already know a lot of what you said in your video, BUT you are so entertaining I watched the entire video. Good work! You know how to explain, keep it simple and keep them glued to the screen :D.

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Sam Valladares May 20, 2021 - 11:35 am

I could retire on $10,000…

Because I'll live IN A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVER.

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啦啦 啦 May 27, 2021 - 12:39 pm

I am your fan, I will always support you.

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聖安 黃 June 1, 2021 - 9:05 am

Your video is so good hope you get better and better!

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maxshe2002 June 2, 2021 - 9:54 am

Your video is so good,hope you get better and better.

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Lawrence Grimaldi June 12, 2021 - 4:08 am

Thanks for the inspiration to be a minimalist

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Scott Jackson July 10, 2021 - 1:37 pm

Who, in the U.S., can live on $35,000 a year? I realize that that number doesn’t include Social Security, but still…

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王鶴霖 July 21, 2021 - 9:23 am

You really impress me

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casienwhey September 5, 2021 - 2:14 am

I'd think very carefully about your future costs. It's one thing to calculate your costs when you are younger and healthy. It's another to consider the real costs you may face when you are old. The average annual cost of a nursing home today is $100K. It will be substantially more in the future. So if you can save $2 million today and only need $50K to live on, what happens if you annual costs become $200K to $300K per year? What happens if the stock market is flat for 20 years? Don't think that can happen? Checkout stock market history from the 1960s to the 1980s.

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Scott From Maryland September 9, 2021 - 1:43 am

$1 Million in a 401k will be taxed when you withdrawl. I'd rather have $1 million in cash which already has the tax paid.

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Your Name Here November 13, 2021 - 9:27 pm

I'm not sure living the rest of your days on a tight budget to be able to sit idle is a lifestyle anybody would choose if they thought about it.

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